As we move into 2026, many investors are asking the same question:
What comes next for my investments?
With over 17 years of experience managing client portfolios through multiple market cycles (many periods of expansion, volatility, and stress) I believe it is more useful to frame the year ahead not in terms of predictions, but in terms of probable scenarios, risks, and opportunities.
A Market Defined by Transitions
The global economy continues to adjust to higher-for-longer interest rates, shifting geopolitical events, and trade uncertainty. While markets have shown relative resilience, uncertainty remains elevated, and outcomes are unlikely to be linear.
But, that being said, to cut to the chase: I believe the markets will likely do well in 2026. There is a good chance it will be a surprisingly positive year, but short-term it will be bumpy.
Why am I so positive? Keep reading…
2026 is going to be shaped by several competing forces:
Economic growth that is uneven by region and sector
Central banks balancing inflation control with growth risks
Increasing gaps between “winners and losers”
American tax policy and trade bullying
<!–
–>
Equity Markets: Selectivity Matters
Stocks, in my opinion, will continue to offer opportunities, but broad-based gains may be harder to achieve. The days of just owning an index ETF are over.
This environment tends to reward discipline, diversification, and patience rather than speculation.
<!–
–>
A Notable Signal: Copper and Global Demand
One recent development worth highlighting is today’s surge in copper prices. Copper is often viewed as a leading indicator of global economic activity due to its widespread use in construction, infrastructure, manufacturing, and electrification.
While no single data point should be over-interpreted, strength in copper prices is generally consistent with improving expectations for global demand. Markets tend to look ahead, and movements in industrial commodities can provide early insight into how investors are assessing future economic momentum.
<!–
–>
Fixed Income: Yield with Caution
As you likely know, bonds have underperformed the last 5 years. Especially the safest government bonds. Bonds will continue to play a meaningful role in portfolios, offering income and diversification benefits. That being said, not all bonds are born the same, and interest rate and duration risks remain, reinforcing the importance of thoughtful positioning rather than blanket exposure. This is why you never buy a bond index, you own a thoughtful and skilled manager with access. Bonds are all about access to private markets: the best bonds never make their way to the public for sale. And this is why we have chosen companies like Lysander-Canso to manage our client’s bonds in our new portfolios we just rolled out. An asset manager that the public does not have easy access to with an excellent award-winning track record.
<!–
–>
Canadian Real Estate: A More Challenging Backdrop
My current view on Canadian real estate for this year remains cautious. Higher borrowing costs, affordability constraints, and slowing transactional activity continue to weigh on the sector. While real estate markets are highly local (as they say: “outcomes will vary”), the broader environment appears negative for Canadian real estate prices for 2026.
<!–
–>
Resources, Geopolitics, and Canada’s Position
Recent geopolitical developments, including rising instability in Venezuela (to put it mildly), have reinforced the strategic importance of energy and natural resources. As global supply chains and security considerations evolve, commodities like oil, natural gas, and industrial metals are likely to play an outsized role in 2026.
Like it or not, Canada remains a resource-based economy, and historically, it has tended to perform better when global demand for energy and raw materials is increasing. We also produce 7% of the world’s gold. Strength in commodities demand and prices will continue to benefit a large portion of the Canadian economy.
<!–
–>
U.S. Policy and Market Sentiment
Another factor influencing market expectations is American fiscal and tax policy. Historically, periods associated with lower corporate taxes, deregulation efforts, and an emphasis on domestic investment (policies broadly associated with a Trump administration) have been viewed by markets as supportive of corporate profitability and capital investment.
While we all have our personal political opinions (I certainly have my own), I must say that the expectation of a more business-friendly tax environment in the USA can only be a positive influence on market sentiment, and stock prices.
<!–
–>
Final Thoughts
None of these observations represent guarantees, and markets rarely follow a straight line. However, by focusing on economic signals, tax policy, trade policy, and a disciplined valuation process (not to mention an understanding of every country’s structural strengths) we aim to position portfolios prudently across a range of possible outcomes.
Navigating uncertainty is never about predicting the future with precision: it is about preparing for the worst, while positioning for the most-likely. And I truly believe the most likely scenario is a surprisingly positive stock market for 2026. With very strong, but volatile, returns from your stocks. And with consistent, but lower, positive returns from your bonds.
As always, strategies remain tailored to individual objectives, time horizons, and risk tolerances. If you would like to discuss how these themes relate to your own portfolio, I encourage you to reach out.
This material, intended for the exclusive use by the recipients who are allowable to receive this document under the applicable laws and regulations of the relevant jurisdictions, was produced by and the opinions expressed are those of Matthew Ramadan at Monarch Wealth as of the date of this publication, and are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The information and/or analysis contained in this material have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed to be reliable but Matthew Ramadan does not make any representation as to their accuracy, correctness, usefulness or completeness and does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof or the information and/or analysis contained herein. The information in this document including statements concerning financial market trends, are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.
All overviews and commentary are intended to be general in nature and for current interest. While helpful, these overviews are no substitute for professional tax, investment or legal advice. Clients should seek professional advice for their particular situation. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Stocks, bonds and mutual funds are offered through Monarch Wealth Corporation. Insurance products and services are offered through Matthew Ramadan at Monarch Wealth.
Monarch Wealth Corporation is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund
STATEMENT OF CONFIDENTIALITY The information contained in this email message and any attachments may be confidential and legally privileged and is intended for the use of the addressee(s) only. If you are not an intended recipient, please: (1) notify me immediately by replying to this message; (2) do not use, disseminate, distribute or reproduce any part of the message or any attachment; and (3) destroy all copies of this message and any attachments.
